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December 19 PM

 

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"Applying some heat."

German 19 PM Allied 19 PM  
Ger19PMAdvance.png (209678 bytes)The Germans are trying to figure out how to get some movement on the US defense. I suspect I'm going to be making a ton of attacks (at least 10) at low odds and just hope for FF results again. In some cases, ENG results would be just as good though. Hopefully any US counterattacks will be as inept as last turn's; unfortunately, I don't think I can always count on the dice server to save me.

Eupen continues to be a problem; I will probably need to hit a 1/6 shot to cause damage this turn, otherwise I'll have to count on capturing it when Randy evacuates it. The only good thing so far was the capture of the Francorchamp dump a few turns ago - that ensures I won't lose the services of a mech division at a critical time due to a lack of supply. A thing Randy has been doing that I have much respect for is defending in positions that I can only get 'two hex' attacks on - preventing the flanking attack is as good as an odds level shift! Of course, US artillery is also cunningly placed to cover as broad a front as possible while also serving as a defensive backstop. Alternatively, a few of them are back far enough to ensure that I can't threaten to advance next to them to prevent their subsequent committment. Grrrr.....

Post Combat Summary:

Eleven attacks were made with generally favorable results.  The Germans were able to use the nice dice and make some important inroads:

-  In the north, the capture of Eupen will provide my forces with some increased flexibility and, hopefully, force the US to defend in depth in this area.

-  In the center, clearing the US unit blocking the natural north-south connection point near Trois Ponts will help me maximize my ability to mass my forces at critical points.

-  The results in the south will force the US to spread themselves a little thin in order to block the southern Ourthe.

Casualties are relatively light for the Americans, not a good sign.  To compound things, Randy has effectively delayed me in many areas of the board.  My initial indicator that the US is feeling stress will be when he doesn't have the forces to be able to defend in any stacks of two or more.  Unfortunately, I don't see this happening for a couple more turns.   

--Tom

US19PMAdvance.png (278482 bytes)The tinder box that ignited this turn was in the far South. The Engaged at Neufchateau guarantees the entrapment of an Allied airborne regiment. The fortuitous 1-1 D1 at hex 3126 gives the Germans a bridgehead across the Ourthe River without my opportunity to blow the accompanying bridges. However, there were some bright spots on the CRT for the Allies this turn. No 6-5-4 was reduced and the defense at Eupen was given up without further loss or engagement (a bit ironic that both Tom and I were trying to gracefully extricate ourselves from the quagmire of Eupen).

I see this turn (19PM)as a crossroads because it is one of the few game turns where the Allies do not get any offboard reinforcements. I feel a need to compromise my defense somewhat in an attempt to blow a few key bridges. This requires I defend in light woods terrain where the Germans can realize combined arms attacks. I expect to lose two, perhaps three reduced regiments this turn, but the ground gained in taking them out will not be too significant. Hex 1502 will be a cornerstone of my defense this turn, and the blown bridge at hex 1603 will serve me well. Somehow I must relieve the pressure in the far South. This will only occur when Tom decides to turn back and assault Bastogne. He must take Marche or Bastogne to win the game. If I can convince him that I'm capable of fortifying Marche to the same extent as Bastogne, he will undoubtedly choose the latter. That will depend on my losses in the upcoming couple of game turns.

LQ Rating:  3.00 LQ Rating:  3.1 (Bridge Demolitions)
Public Comments:

Tom - You've got to get going. The Germans need to push past the Forest area at Grand-Menil / Werbomont and get the US out in the Light Woods before they get some good counter-attacking forces in hand; getting past Verviers is also paramount now. In short, it's time to throw caution to the wind. Yes, I know that's not your style, but you've gotta' get on the move.

Randy - It's time to cross your fingers and pray for Patton and Collins.

--Bob Ryan

German Combat

Red = Outcome (LQ Rating)   Blue = German unit   Green = Allied Unit

2414:  Adj (33) vs 11 + 333A (16) @3-1(-1) = 1 = 0 = D4  (3)

    1/26(r) to 2715, 10/CCA to Manhay
    116/156, GD/Fuh Escort to 2413;
    560/1128, 62/190, 18/293 to 2515

1805:  Adj -277/989 (45) vs 6 + 190A (11) @4-1(-1) = 5 = 4 = D4 (4)

    1/18 to 2004;
    Peiper to 1805; 1SS/1, 277/990, 326/753(r) to 1804.

1908:  Adj (40) vs 4 + 187A (9) @3-1(-1) = 4 = 3 = D1 (5)
    7/CCA(r) to 2004;
    to 1908.

1704:  1604+277/989+402A (33) vs 6 + 406A (11) @2-1 = 6 = SU (6)

1501:  Adj (10) vs (5) @2-1 = 4 = FF (2)
    326/752 is reduced

1503:  Adj (29) vs (18) @1-1 = 1 = D1 (1)
    30/117, 7/CCR(r) to 1602;
    12SS/12, 326/751(r) to 1503

2112:  Adj + 388A (36) vs (6) @5-1 = 3 = D4 (4)
    1/16 to 2004;
    9SS/19 to 2212

2821:  Adj + 408A (39) vs 8 + 174A (13) @4-1 = 2 = D4 (3)
    7/CCB(r), 82/325 to 3122;
    116/16, 2/2, 212/316 to 2820;
    Lehr 901, 62/164, 26/39 to 2922

3126:  Adj (16) vs 8 @1-1 = 1 = D1 (2)
    101/327 to 3225;
    2/3, 560/1130(r) to 3126

2924:  Adj (37) vs 4 + 402A (9) @5-1(-1) = 2 = 1 = 1D2 (1)
    101/501 reduced to 3123;
    Brandenberger, 5/15 to 3025;
    212/423, 26/77 to 3024
    Lehr Recon, 560/1129 to 2924

3232:  Adj (24) vs 12 @2-1 = 5 = ENG (2)

Bridge Demolitions

2920 (1-4) = 6 = Fizzle. (5.5)
2412 (1-4) = 2 = Boom!  (2.5)
2311 (1-4) = 3 = Boom!  (2.5)
1803 (1-4) = 4 = Boom!  (2.5)
2003 (1-4) = 4 = Boom!  (2.5)