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December 22 AM

 

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"The British are coming, the British are coming!"

German 22 AM Allied 22 AM  
Ger22AMAdvance.png (328066 bytes)An important turn for the Germans.  I have a very weak screen on the left flank of 7th army and I have some high odds attacks aimed at causing attrition.  In the center, I am hoping to secure two bridgeheads across the Ourthe.  A few preliminary thoughts while I await my combat results:

-  Randy left two full-strength regiments in the north susceptible to 7-1(-2) attacks, I don't think that was well advised. Additionally, the positioning is such that I have a good chance of denying the building of forts in Liege in subsequent turns. Might be important...

-  On the Ourthe, the US stacked the defensive line. While this might prevent me from attacking some of the hexes, the fact that the terrain allows combined arms attacks pretty much ensures I'll be able to muster good odds against the central position. Given good enough results, it would be possible to secure two bridge crossings.

-  My defense against Patton is *very thin*. Given the pressure further west, I'm gambling that some of the US 3rd Army reinforcements will have to be delayed to enter further west.

Anyway, I expect to kill between 4 and 9 steps with 5-6 being highly probable.

Post Combat Summary:

I ended up killing 5 steps but missed on the 3-1(-2) in the center that I really wanted.  Surprisingly, my luck quotient was pretty good!  Why am I disappointed?  I think that I won some non-critical battles and lost the important one.  My exploitation with 5/15 was difficult to decide:  I could have driven west but I had planned from the beginning to support my defense in front of Neufchateau!  If I had sent it west I faced the risk that Patton would pounce on that unit...

I want Randy to delay Patton and I'm hoping the US will withdraw big time from the center.  Let's see what happens...


-- Tom

US22AMMove.png (312801 bytes)Tom is right; I took a beating this turn, and I expect to do so in the next. I have to buy another turn to position the newly arrived Brits along the Meuse River Line. Losing the town of Wellin on a measly 1-1 attack was a disappointment. I perceive two tactical errors in the German 22AM move. I believe Tom should have attacked hex 3413 at 2-1(-1). It would have provided him with a 50/50 shot at surrounding 10/CCA in addition to possibly limiting the mobility of U.S. 3rd Armor in hex 3212. Of more significance was Tom's passed opportunity to exploit move 5/15FJ into the town Gedinne, which would have opened a major North-South artery and given his southern forces a 22PM shot at Beauraing.

I sense Tom and I are playing a bit of poker. He is continuing to keep me guessing about his intent with regard to the fortifications in Bastogne and Marche. I will counter by keeping the Patton force off-map this turn. Rich Ogata taught me a lesson to time the counterstroke with the availability of air power, which can effectively shut down the mobility of any potential German relief force. The Allied center looks thin, but the Germans will be unable to access Celles or Ciney in strength, the former due to the placement of a reduced regiment in Gedinne. In the upcoming turn I will receive four fresh regiments of reinforcements in the center.

-- Randy

LQ Rating:  3.28 LQ Rating:  2.33 (3 for 3 on bridge demo attempts.)
Public Comments:

German Combat

Red = Outcome (LQ Rating)   Blue = German unit   Green = Allied Unit

2805:  7-1(-2) = 1 = -1 = DE (1.5)

   9/60 Eliminated.
    150x, 9SS/20, 1SS/2(r) to 2906
    1SS/1, Peiper, 12/48 to 2805
    3Pzg/8 to 2706


2703:  7-1(-2) = 3 = 1 = 1D4 (3.5)

   84/334(r) to 3002
    12SS/12, 12SS/25, 277/990 to 2802
    12SS/26, 326/751(r) to 2702
    277/989 to 2803


3515:  4-1(-1) = 5 = 4 = D2 (5)

   10/CCA to 3613
    2/2 to 3615
    2/304 to 3515
   116/16, 5/14, 9SS/9 to 3514


3011: 3-1(-2) = 6 = 4 = CA (6)


4223: 1-1 = 1 = D1 to 4323 (2)

   101/501(r) to 4323
    62/183 to 4223


4529: 4-1 = 4 = D2 to 4729 (4)

   101/327 to 4729
   Lehr 902 to 4628
    26/77, Fuh Gd to 4528


4231:  5-1 = 3 = D4 (1)

    82/504 Eliminated
    26/78 to 4334
    276/987 to 4432
    Lehr 901 to 4630
    Lehr Recon to 4532

Allied Combat

Bridge Demolitions

2701 (1-4) = 2 = Boom (2.5)
2803 (1-3) = 2 = Boom  (2)
2902/2903 hexside = 4 = Boom (2.5)